@Article{FerreiraCFENVBMANA:2023:PoAbBi,
               author = "Ferreira, Igor Jos{\'e} Malfetoni and Campanharo, Wesley Augusto 
                         and Fonseca, Marisa Gesteira and Escada, Maria Isabel Sobral and 
                         Nascimento, Marcelo Trindade and Villela, Dora M. and Brancalion, 
                         Pedro and Magnago, Luiz Fernando Silva and Anderson, Liana 
                         Oighenstein and Nagy, Laszlo and Arag{\~a}o, Luiz Eduardo 
                         Oliveira e Cruz de",
          affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto 
                         Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Veraterra Mapeamento 
                         \& Consultoria Ambienta} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas 
                         Espaciais (INPE)} and {Universidade Estadual do Norte Fluminense 
                         (UENF)} and {Universidade Estadual do Norte Fluminense (UENF)} and 
                         {Universidade de S{\~a}o Paulo (USP)} and {Universidade Federal 
                         da Bahia (UFBA)} and {Centro Nacional de Monitoramento e Alertas 
                         de Desastres Naturais (CEMADEN)} and {Universidade Estadual de 
                         Campinas (UNICAMP)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais 
                         (INPE)}",
                title = "Potential aboveground biomass increase in Brazilian Atlantic 
                         Forest fragments with climate change",
              journal = "Global Change Biology",
                 year = "2023",
               volume = "29",
               number = "11",
                pages = "3098--3113",
             keywords = "climate change, ecosystem service, fragmentation, human-modified 
                         landscape, neotropical carbon stocks modelling, remote sensing.",
             abstract = "Fragmented tropical forest landscapes preserve much of the 
                         remaining biodiversity and carbon stocks. Climate change is 
                         expected to intensify droughts and increase fire hazard and fire 
                         intensities, thereby causing habitat deterioration, and losses of 
                         biodiversity and carbon stock losses. Understanding the 
                         trajectories that these landscapes may follow under increased 
                         climate pressure is imperative for establishing strategies for 
                         conservation of biodiversity and ecosystem services. Here, we used 
                         a quantitative predictive modelling approach to project the 
                         spatial distribution of the aboveground biomass density (AGB) by 
                         the end of the 21st century across the Brazilian Atlantic Forest 
                         (AF) domain. To develop the models, we used the maximum entropy 
                         method with projected climate data to 2100, based on the 
                         Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Representative 
                         Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 from the fifth Assessment Report. 
                         Our AGB models had a satisfactory performance (area under the 
                         curve\ >\ 0.75 and p value\ <\ .05). 
                         The models projected a significant increase of 8.5% in the total 
                         carbon stock. Overall, the projections indicated that 76.9% of the 
                         AF domain would have suitable climatic conditions for increasing 
                         biomass by 2100 considering the RCP 4.5 scenario, in the absence 
                         of deforestation. Of the existing forest fragments, 34.7% are 
                         projected to increase their AGB, while 2.6% are projected to have 
                         their AGB reduced by 2100. The regions likely to lose most AGBup 
                         to 40% compared to the baselineare found between latitudes 13° and 
                         20° south. Overall, although climate change effects on AGB vary 
                         latitudinally for the 20712100 period under the RCP 4.5 scenario, 
                         our model indicates that AGB stocks can potentially increase 
                         across a large fraction of the AF. The patterns found here are 
                         recommended to be taken into consideration during the planning of 
                         restoration efforts, as part of climate change mitigation 
                         strategies in the AF and elsewhere in Brazil.",
                  doi = "10.1111/gcb.16670",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16670",
                 issn = "1354-1013",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "Global Change Biology - 2023 - Ferreira - Potential aboveground 
                         biomass increase in Brazilian Atlantic Forest 
                         fragments.pdf.crdownload",
        urlaccessdate = "21 maio 2024"
}